A lack of economic diversification, coupled with a sometimes-lower availability of external funding sources, means that a decreased oil and gas prices and shifting investor appetite could contribute to deteriorated creditworthiness for some GCC banks. That’s according to S&P Global Ratings, in its recent report mini-series exploring the credit risks that the transition towards cleaner energy sources could have on the GCC’s banks and overall economy.
While GCC economies have somewhat diversified away from oil since 2012, S&P Global Ratings’ hypothetical long-run stress test suggests that the average rating of a Gulf sovereign could fall by two notches from ‘BBB+’ to ‘BBB-’ if oil prices fall below US$40 by 2040, highlighting that the current pace of economic and fiscal diversification is insufficient to counter the decline in oil prices.
Following outreach by Moorgate-Finn, the research was covered by Trade Arabia, ZAWYA, AMEInfo, and The Peninsula Qatar.
A report published by non-profit financial think tank Planet Tracker in collaboration with The London School of Economic (LSE)’s Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment examines the dependence of sovereign bonds on reliable flows of natural capital – that is, the world’s stock of natural resources.
The report identifies Argentina and Brazil as the two G20 countries facing the greatest number of risk factors associated with their economic dependence on their natural capital stocks such as soybean and cattle. An estimated 28% of Argentina’s sovereign bonds and 34% of Brazil’s sovereign bonds will be exposed to anticipated changes in climate and anti-deforestation policy over the next decade. For Argentina, this rises to 44% after 2030.
In the report, Planet Tracker and the LSE propose a first framework for factoring natural capital risks into sovereign debt analysis based on traditional credit rating factors: institutional, economic, trade, natural hazards, and fiscal.
Following Moorgate-Finn’s outreach, the report was covered by Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Environmental Finance, Natural Capital Coalition, Green Finance Platform, Bonds & Loans, Public Debt Management Network, Investing.com and Financial Post.
In its recent briefing paper, non-profit financial think tank Planet Tracker explored the financial impact that ongoing environmental risks could have on companies and investors in the US$45 billion shrimp industry.
Responsible for 30% of deforestation of South East Asia’s mangroves, shrimp farming is facing short-to-medium term sustainability-related supply chain risks as wholesale buyers such as Nestlé transition towards deforestation-free supply chains. The report also points to a key regulatory risk in regard to the sector’s biggest regional importer, the EU, which is seeking to ban all deforestation-linked soft commodities with its incoming Action Plan on Deforestation.
Yet despite the financial impact that such environmental risks could have on investors in the farmed shrimp industry, Planet Tracker has found no evidence of these institutions reporting against either historical mangrove deforestation or farmed shrimp emissions in their portfolios.
Following outreach by Moorgate, the paper was covered by The Economist (World Ocean Initiative), Financial Times, Environmental Finance, Responsible Investor, The Asset, BusinessGreen, GreenBiz, Undercurrent News, The Fish Site, Mis Peces, Karma Impact, ImpactAlpha here and here, The ESG Channel, The Green Finance Platform, and FocusTechnica
Across the globe, political uncertainty is increasingly becoming the rule rather than the exception. Meanwhile, trade tensions continue to define relationships between major players – such as China the U.S. and Europe. Both factors may induce caution among infrastructure investors.
Writing for Institutional Investing in Infrastructure, S&P Global Ratings’ Karl Nietvelt, Head of Research in Global Infrastructure, agrees that geopolitical events are influencing the market.
Indeed, infrastructure is “an asset class with typically lengthy lifespans that, therefore, beneﬁts from political and regulatory calm,” according to Nietvelt. Yet today’s uncertain political climate, underpinned by elections in 2019, could dampen market confidence.
Another influential trend is the rising impact of environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns throughout the infrastructure sector. Organisations prioritising these issues “have achieved reduced costs, mitigated risk potential, and created revenue-generating opportunities,” continues Nietvelt.
Read the full article in Institutional Investing in Infrastructure here.
The trade finance gap is a serious issue that is impacting the health of global trade and business development in many countries across the world. In Asian Banking & Finance, BNY Mellon Treasury Services’s Joon Kim, Global Head of Trade Finance Product and Portfolio Management, and Arnon Goldstein, Regional Head of Relationship Management APAC, discuss the key findings of BNY Mellon’s recent global survey into the trade finance gap. The article examines solutions for addressing the gap, and the importance of taking action in order to ensure trade in Asia can reach its full potential.
To read the full article, please click here
BNY Mellon has won three awards in EMEA Finance magazine’s 2019 Treasury Services Awards, including retaining its title of “Best Transactional Bank for Financial Institutions in EMEA” for an astonishing tenth consecutive year. BNY Mellon was also named “Best Transactional Bank for Financial Institutions in the Middle East” and the provider of the “Best FX Services in EMEA” for its market-leading FX solution, SmartPaySM Global.
The awards were presented to BNY Mellon Treasury Services’s Bana Akkad Azhari, Head of Relationship Management MEA and CIS; Marcus Sehr, Head of Europe; and Ross Jones, Head of FX and Multicurrency Payment Product, at Sibos.
To read the full awards write-up in EMEA Finance, please click here (please note, the article lies behind a paywall)
This is an extraordinary moment in the history of one of the Middle East’s largest economies. The changes underway in Saudi society are both palpable and visible. And the changes underway within the Kingdom’s banking and financial system are equally remarkable, if less visible. As with other countries, digitisation is causing banks to fundamentally rethink their role, while new players are providing innovative services to both consumers and businesses alike. Here, a roundtable co-hosted by BNY Mellon, the Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB) and EMEA Finance brings together industry leaders to share their views and expertise on how banks in the Kingdom are adapting to the evolving landscape and capitalising on new opportunities.
To read the full write-up, see the Sibos edition or click here (please note, the article lies behind a paywall)
S&P Global Ratings scored Adani Green Energy Ltd. Restricted Group 2 (AGEL RG2)’s proposed US$362.5 million green bonds E1/90 under its Green Evaluation – the highest score on the Green Evaluation scale of E1-E4, comprising a Mitigation score of 90, a Transparency score of 89, and a Governance score of 93.
The bonds will be used to finance and refinance solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants and related transmission infrastructure in Karnataka and Rajasthan, India.
“AGEL RG2’s intention to use 100% of the proceeds for solar PV power projects is the main driver of the high score,” said Cheng Jia Ong, the primary analyst of the Green Evaluation.
Following Moorgate’s outreach, news of the Green Evaluation was covered by Renewables Now and PV-Magazine.
Green bonds have proliferated since the first green debt instrument was introduced in 2007, with banks and corporate bond issuers leading the pack. However, project bond and emerging market issuers have been more hesitant.
Speaking on TXF Proximo’s podcast, “Transmissions”, Michael Wilkins, Global Head of Analytics and Research, Sustainable Finance, S&P Global Ratings, argues that this may not be the case for much longer.
“Because there is interest among investors to benchmark according to environmental contribution as well as credit quality, there may be opportunity for green project bonds in emerging markets to grow,” said Wilkins.
Meanwhile, he believes that green project bonds may well see a surge in market interest if the high level of environmental contribution that S&P Global Ratings generally sees from the asset class is made explicit in offering circulars.
To listen to the podcast, please click here.
In an exclusive interview with Into Africa, BPL Global Directors George Bellord and Sam Evans explore the impact that the global political and economic climate is having on demand for trade credit insurance to cover African risk, as well as the challenges and opportunities for the wider credit and political risk insurance (CPRI) market.
“Africa is one of the regions with the largest exposure for our clients. The high growth rates of many countries across Africa, such as Ethiopia and Cote D’Ivoire, have meant increased levels of trade, as well as infrastructure projects, ranging from energy to roadway construction,” said Evans.
To read the full interview, please click here (page 49).